Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment
Source: https://learningforlife.tudelft.nl/decision-making-under-uncertainty-introduction-to-structured-expert-judgment/ Parent: https://learningforlife.tudelft.nl/our-courses/business-and-management/strategy-innovation/
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- Recognize when and in which settings the Classical Model (CM) can be used for performing Structured Expert Judgment.
- Understand when to account for uncertainty assessments in complex decision-making context when data pose issues.
- Know how CM can be used to analyze expert data and obtain answers to questions of interest.
- Explore an optional IDEA Protocol module, which uses a different method of performing Structured Expert Judgment.
Free
- Type Course
- Location Online
- Pacing Starts anytime / Self-paced
- Length
For instructor paced courses this is the length of the course.
For self-paced courses this is the length of the course if you spend the amount of time per week as specified. You're free to go faster or slower as you see fit.
6 Weeks - Effort 4 - 6 Hours per week
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- Tina Nane
- Anca Hanea
-
Overview
Don't let the absence of data or the lack of appropriate data affect your decision-making. In this introductory course you will discover the theory behind Structured Expert Judgment.
In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to explain how expert opinion can help in many areas where complex decisions need to be made.
For instance, how can you predict volcano activity when no eruptions have been recorded over a long period of time? Or how can you predict how many people will be resistant to antibiotics in a country where there is no available data at national level? Or how about estimating the time needed to evacuate people in flood risk areas?
In situations like these, expert opinions are needed to address complex decision-making problems. This course will show you the basics of various techniques that use expert opinion for uncertainty quantification. These techniques vary from the informal and undocumented opinion of one expert to a fully documented and formal elicitation of a panel of experts, such as the Classical Model (CM) or Cooke's method, which is arguably the most rigorous method for performing Structured Expert Judgment.
CM, developed at TU Delft by Roger Cooke, has been successfully applied for over 30 years in areas as diverse as climate change, disaster management, epidemiology, public and global health, ecology, aeronautics/aerospace, nuclear safety, environment and ecology, engineering and many others.
Verified learners will have the added benefit of being able to:
- Get an in-depth perspective on the CM method theory
- Access optional modules about dependence elicitation and eliciting probabilities.
- Details
##### Course Syllabus
- Week 1: Why and when to use SEJ?
- Week 2: Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information score
- Week 3: Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker
- Week 4: Data analysis
- Week 5: Applications of CM
- Week 6: Practical matters (biases, experts, elicitation)
- Qualifications
##### Chartered Engineering Competences
All our online courses and programs have been matched to the competences determined by KIVI’s Competence Structure, a common frame of reference for everyone, across all disciplines, levels and roles.
These competences apply to this course:
- A1: Extend your theoretical knowledge of new and advancing technologies.
- B4: Exercise sound judgement when stakes are conflicting or knowledge is incomplete.
- Admission
This is a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) that runs on edX.
##### Prerequisites
Basic concepts in Probability Theory and Statistics. Links to videos introducing the concepts will be provided.
- Course format: MOOC
This course is a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC). Our MOOCs are delivered on edX.org and are open to all. They include video lectures, readings, assignments, and community discussions. Content is free, with optional certificates and additional exercises available for a fee.
What our learners say about us
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Communication with the staff was great and crucial for successfully finishing the course.
Nicolas Robinson-Garcia - The Netherlands
Read the full story - > This course was really helpful and informative in allowing us to understand the method.
Sithara Buddhini - Sri Lanka
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