# Matthew Holden

**Source**: https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/12708
**Parent**: https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/920

Dr

# Matthew Holden

Email:
:   [m.holden1@uq.edu.au](mailto:m.holden1@uq.edu.au)

Phone:
:   [+61 7 336 51386](tel:+61 7 336 51386)

## Positions

Affiliate of Centre for Marine Science
:   Centre for Marine Science
:   Faculty of Science

Affiliate of Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science
:   Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science
:   Faculty of Science

Senior Lecturer
:   Mathematics
:   Faculty of Science

## Overview

### Background

Dr. Matthew Holden is an applied mathematician using modelling to improve environmental outcomes. Mathematical tools unify his research across several diverse topics in biodiversity conservation, theoretical ecology, fisheries, and other branches of natural resource management. He is especially interested in how we improve the well-being of human populations at least cost to biodiversity.

Dr. Holden currently serves as the President of the [Resource Modeling Association](https://resourcemodeling.org/), an international society of economists, mathematicians, and envrionmental scientists unified via their passion for modelling and other quantitative methods to solve the world's hardest natural resource management problems. He also is the Deputy Director of Research for the [*Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science* (CBCS)](https://cbcs.centre.uq.edu.au/), and is also affiliated with the [*Centre for Marine Science* (CMS)](https://marine.uq.edu.au/).

Dr. Holden was awarded his Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics at Cornell University, where he used dynamical systems, optimal control, and statistical theory to recommend policies to improve the management of invasive species, agricultural pests, and fisheries. He received his bachelor’s degree from the University of California, Davis, where he won the University Medal, working on the effect of habitat fragmentation on the persistence of endangered species.

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### Availability

Dr Matthew Holden is:
:   Available for supervision
:   Media expert

### Fields of research

[Environmental Sciences](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/search?research-field=4773)
[Mathematical Sciences](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/search?research-field=4768)

### Qualifications

- Doctoral Diploma, Cornell University

## Works

[Search Professor Matthew Holden’s works on UQ eSpace](http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/list/author_id/2029820)

[All
(58)](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts-publication/12708/all)
[Journal Article
(50)](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts-publication/12708/4748)
[Other Outputs
(7)](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts-publication/12708/4749)
[Conference Publication
(1)](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts-publication/12708/4751)

2026

Journal Article

##### The future of artificial intelligence in ecosystem modeling

Spillias, Scott, Trebilco, Rowan, Adams, Matthew P., Boschetti, Fabio, Constable, Andrew, Dunstan, Piers, Ferrier, Simon, Porobic, Javier, Grimberg, Einat, Grigg, Nicola, Harfoot, Michael, Hirsch, Pascal, Hobday, Alistair J., Holden, Matthew, Hutton, Trevor, Kaur, Sarah, Melbourne-Thomas, Jess, Paris, Cécile, Parker, Denham, Plagányi, Éva, Rogers, Jacob G. D., Stitzlein, Cara, Weiley, Viveka, Wild-Allen, Karen, Woolley, Skipton N. C. and Fulton, Elizabeth A. (2026). The future of artificial intelligence in ecosystem modeling. BioScience, 76 (1), 57-70. doi: 10.1093/biosci/biaf169

[The future of artificial intelligence in ecosystem modeling](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:c913ca8)

2026

Journal Article

##### Trap cropping to maximize agricultural yield: balancing land allocation trade‐offs between main crop production and effective pest management

Holden, Matthew H. (2026). Trap cropping to maximize agricultural yield: balancing land allocation trade‐offs between main crop production and effective pest management. Natural Resource Modeling, 39 (1) e70020. doi: 10.1111/nrm.70020

[Trap cropping to maximize agricultural yield: balancing land allocation trade‐offs between main crop production and effective pest management](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:730318c)

2026

Journal Article

##### Towards a unifying theory of conservation in production systems

Erm, Philip, Holden, Matthew H., Cerullo, Gianluca, Green, Rhys E. and Balmford, Andrew (2026). Towards a unifying theory of conservation in production systems. Biological Conservation, 313 111623, 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111623

[Towards a unifying theory of conservation in production systems](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:b31579c)

2025

Journal Article

##### How monitoring matters for nature conservation: 15 reasons framed in a theory of change

Helmstedt, Kate J., Holden, Matthew H., Baker, Christopher M., Elliot-Kerr, Shona, Greiner, Ariel, Hudgins, Emma J., Shea, Katriona, Tulloch, Ayesha I. T., Young, Alys R., Zhang, Luping and Possingham, Hugh P. (2025). How monitoring matters for nature conservation: 15 reasons framed in a theory of change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 292 (2061) 20252527. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2025.2527

[How monitoring matters for nature conservation: 15 reasons framed in a theory of change](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:34f92d9)

2025

Journal Article

##### Corrigendum to “Towards a unifying theory of conservation in production systems” [Biol. Conserv. 313 (2026) 111623]

Erm, Philip, Holden, Matthew H., Cerullo, Gianluca, Green, Rhys E. and Balmford, Andrew (2025). Corrigendum to “Towards a unifying theory of conservation in production systems” [Biol. Conserv. 313 (2026) 111623]. Biological Conservation, 314 111645, 111645. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111645

[Corrigendum to “Towards a unifying theory of conservation in production systems” [Biol. Conserv. 313 (2026) 111623]](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:64080db)

2025

Journal Article

##### Expand or better manage protected areas: A framework for minimizing extinction risk when threats are concentrated near edges

Dillon, Brendan G., Possingham, Hugh P. and Holden, Matthew H. (2025). Expand or better manage protected areas: A framework for minimizing extinction risk when threats are concentrated near edges. Biological Conservation, 311 111469, 111469-311. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111469

[Expand or better manage protected areas: A framework for minimizing extinction risk when threats are concentrated near edges](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:de56ce2)

2025

Journal Article

##### Persistence index for harvested populations

Filar, Jerzy A., Holden, Matthew H., Mendiolar, Manuela and Streipert, Sabrina H. (2025). Persistence index for harvested populations. Mathematical Biosciences, 387 109497, 1-14. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109497

[Persistence index for harvested populations](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:b7d7602)

2024

Journal Article

##### Revisiting fishery sustainability targets

Cattoni, Vincent, South, Leah F., Warne, David J., Boettiger, Carl, Thakran, Bhavya and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Revisiting fishery sustainability targets. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 86 (11) 127, 1-19. doi: 10.1007/s11538-024-01352-7

[Revisiting fishery sustainability targets](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:6dd6c7a)

2024

Journal Article

##### Why shouldn't I collect more data? Reconciling disagreements between intuition and value of information analyses

Holden, Matthew H., Akinlotan, Morenikeji D., Binley, Allison D., Cho, Frankie H. T., Helmstedt, Kate J. and Chadès, Iadine (2024). Why shouldn't I collect more data? Reconciling disagreements between intuition and value of information analyses. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 15 (9), 1580-1592. doi: 10.1111/2041-210x.14391

[Why shouldn't I collect more data? Reconciling disagreements between intuition and value of information analyses](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:3d25386)

2024

Journal Article

##### Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries

Erm, Philip, Balmford, Andrew, Krueck, Nils C., Takashina, Nao and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries. Journal of Applied Ecology, 61 (4), 621-632. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.14595

[Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:e10e019)

2024

Journal Article

##### Cost–benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management

Holden, Matthew H., Plagányi, Eva E., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Campbell, Alexander B., Janes, Rachel, Lovett, Robyn A., Wickens, Montana, Adams, Matthew P., Botelho, Larissa Lubiana, Dichmont, Catherine M., Erm, Philip, Helmstedt, Kate J., Heneghan, Ryan F., Mendiolar, Manuela, Richardson, Anthony J., Rogers, Jacob G. D., Saunders, Kate and Timms, Liam (2024). Cost–benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management. Journal of Fish Biology, 104 (6), 1667-1674. doi: 10.1111/jfb.15741

[Cost–benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:8b912f3)

2024

Journal Article

##### Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) impacts on United States street trees

Hudgins, Emma J., Hanson, Jeffrey O., MacQuarrie, Chris J. K., Yemshanov, Denys, Baker, Christopher M., Chadès, Iadine, Holden, Matthew H., McDonald‐Madden, Eve and Bennett, Joseph R. (2024). Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) impacts on United States street trees. Conservation Science and Practice, 6 (3) e13087. doi: 10.1111/csp2.13087

[Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) impacts on United States street trees](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:42b7344)

2024

Journal Article

##### Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species

Timms, Liam and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species. Biological Conservation, 290 110463, 110463. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110463

[Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:b7f152b)

2024

Journal Article

##### The house of a thousand species: the untapped potential of comprehensive biodiversity censuses of urban properties

Rogers, Andrew M., Yong, Russell Q.‐Y. and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). The house of a thousand species: the untapped potential of comprehensive biodiversity censuses of urban properties. Ecology, 105 (2) e4225, 1-7. doi: 10.1002/ecy.4225

[The house of a thousand species: the untapped potential of comprehensive biodiversity censuses of urban properties](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:c339785)

2024

Journal Article

##### Overcoming the impossibility of age-balanced harvest

Filar, Jerzy A., Holden, Matthew H., Mendiolar, Manuela and Streipert, Sabrina H. (2024). Overcoming the impossibility of age-balanced harvest. Mathematical Biosciences, 367 109111, 1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109111

[Overcoming the impossibility of age-balanced harvest](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:6944b9b)

2023

Journal Article

##### Is mushy tuna syndrome a growing problem for the tuna industry?

Peter, Soni Maria Jacob, Blomberg, Simone P., Holden, Matthew H., Hoffman, Louwrens C. and Tibbetts, Ian R. (2023). Is mushy tuna syndrome a growing problem for the tuna industry?. Foods, 12 (19) 3590, 1-11. doi: 10.3390/foods12193590

[Is mushy tuna syndrome a growing problem for the tuna industry?](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:31b6ad4)

2023

Journal Article

##### The biodiversity benefits of marine protected areas in well-regulated fisheries

Erm, Philip, Balmford, Andrew and Holden, Matthew H. (2023). The biodiversity benefits of marine protected areas in well-regulated fisheries. Biological Conservation, 284 110049, 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110049

[The biodiversity benefits of marine protected areas in well-regulated fisheries](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:6eaa5c8)

2023

Conference Publication

##### Estimating recreational catch

Mendiolar, Manuela, Filar, Jerzy A., O'Neill, Michael F., Martin, Tyson, Teixeira, Daniella, Webley, James and Holden, Matthew (2023). Estimating recreational catch. 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Darwin, NT Australia, 9 to 14 July 2023. Canberra, ACT Australia: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. doi: 10.36334/modsim.2023.mendiolar

[Estimating recreational catch](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:98ebe68)

2023

Journal Article

##### MOO-GAPS: A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability

Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, Holden, Matthew H., Herrero, Mario, Chang, Jinfeng, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Lee, Katie, Bryan, Brett A., Gerber, James, Game, Edward T. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2023). MOO-GAPS: A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability. Journal of Cleaner Production, 396 136440, 1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136440

[MOO-GAPS: A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:b4b6238)

2023

Journal Article

##### Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production

Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, H. Holden, Matthew, Herrero, Mario, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Chang, Jinfeng, Gerber, James, Witt, G. Bradd, Game, Edward T., A. Bryan, Brett, Wintle, Brendan, Lee, Katie, Bal, Payal and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2023). Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production. Nature Sustainability, 6 (3), 284-294. doi: 10.1038/s41893-022-01017-0

[Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:c52b4f7)

## Funding

### Current funding

- 2025 - 2029

  Resolving the value of information paradox for ecological management

  ARC Discovery Projects

  [Open grant](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/project/66993)
- 2023 - 2026

  Zooplankton: the missing link in modelling the ocean carbon cycle

  ARC Discovery Projects

  [Open grant](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/project/57069)

### Past funding

- 2024 - 2025

  Value of Information Theory to improve the management of biological populations Biomathematics

  United States Army Research Office

  [Open grant](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/project/65929)
- 2020

  Koala Monitoring Program

  Queensland Government Department of Environment and Science

  [Open grant](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/project/41865)
- 2019 - 2023

  The value of model complexity for fisheries management

  ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award

  [Open grant](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/project/37080)

## Supervision

### Availability

Dr Matthew Holden is:
:   Available for supervision

Looking for a supervisor? Read our advice on [how to choose a supervisor](https://study.uq.edu.au/study-options/phd-mphil-professional-doctorate/how-to-choose-a-supervisor).

### Available projects

- #### More Parks or Better Parks? Modeling Optimal Conservation Policies for Biodiversity

  How can we make the most of limited conservation budgets to protect endangered species? This project investigates the optimal balance between expanding protected areas—such as national parks—and improving the management of existing ones. With ambitious new international targets calling for at least 30% of Earth’s surface to be conserved, it is crucial to determine whether more land protection or better stewardship offers the greatest ecological return. Through a combination of dynamical systems modelling, optimisation techniques, and real-world data, this project will develop and analyse models to inform smarter conservation policies. Students will explore interdisciplinary questions at the intersection of mathematics, ecology, and policy, with the opportunity to contribute to impactful environmental decision-making.

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- #### Improving Sustainable Agriculture Through Insect Movement Models

  Are you interested in applying mathematics to real-world ecological and agricultural challenges? This project explores the use of mathematical modeling to improve sustainable pest management in farming. Trap cropping—a technique that uses attractive "decoy" plants to divert pests from valuable crops—has shown promise in small-scale settings like greenhouses, but often fails at commercial scales. We aim to understand why, using tools such as ODEs, Difference Equations, Markov Processes, and Simulations to model pest movement and behavior. By combining theory with practical applications, this project offers students the chance to engage in meaningful, interdisciplinary research that can contribute to more sustainable agricultural practices.

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- #### Accurately detecting population trends in ecology

  Accurately estimating trends in population abundance is critical for developing ecological theory, performing environmental assessments, and advising natural resource management. While the error and power of statistical methods for detecting population declines and recoveries are well-studied, they rarely consider the issues of density dependence. If population size time series data occurs in an area where the species is abundant, density dependence may cause the over-prediction of a population decline. In this project, we will calculate the probability of misestimating population growth rates above or below a specified threshold. We will then use the analysis in two applied contexts (1) the probability of falsely predicting a threatened species is declining or recovering and (2) the use of linear population models for predicting species occurrence spatially. In the latter case, we will derive simple rules of thumb for the critical population abundance, in relation to carrying capacity, after which density dependence interferes with accurate predictions of persistence. The critical abundance can be used as a guideline for when it may be appropriate to use linear population process models to predict species occurrence in a density-dependent world. The outcomes of the project can inform conservation planning from reserve design to invasive and threatened species management

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### Supervision history

#### Current supervision

- Master Philosophy

  ##### Accurately Detecting Occupancy Trends in Ecology

  Principal Advisor

  Other advisors:
  [Associate Professor Michael Bulmer](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/543)
- Doctor Philosophy

  ##### Expand or Improve Protected Areas - Modeling Optimal Conservation Policies for Biodiversity

  Principal Advisor

  Other advisors:
  [Professor Hugh Possingham](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/920)

#### Completed supervision

- 2024

  Doctor Philosophy

  ##### [On quantitative indices and modelling of harvested fish populations](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:0304848)

  Principal Advisor

  Other advisors:
  [Emeritus Professor Jerzy Filar](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/16474)
- 2025

  Doctor Philosophy

  ##### [Proximate factors of "Mushy Tuna Syndrome" in Skipjack Tuna and an Amelioration Plan for South Pacific Fishers and Processors.](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:f729b1b)

  Associate Advisor

  Other advisors:
  [Dr Simone Blomberg](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/428), [Professor Louw Hoffman](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/22855), [Associate Professor Ian Tibbetts](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/196)
- 2024

  Doctor Philosophy

  ##### [Spatial optimisation of conservation actions to minimise species threat status and population extinction risk among African mammals](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:d8de6e4)

  Associate Advisor

  Other advisors:
  [Professor Hugh Possingham](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/920)
- 2020

  Doctor Philosophy

  ##### [The exposure and contribution of predators and scavengers to humans](https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:b9a411a)

  Associate Advisor

  Other advisors:
  [Professor James Watson](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/5735), [Professor Eve McDonald-Madden](https://about.uq.edu.au/experts/1623)

## Media

### Enquiries

Contact Dr Matthew Holden directly for media enquiries about:

- environmental decision making
- math

#### Need help?

For help with finding experts, story ideas and media enquiries, contact our Media team:

[communications@uq.edu.au](mailto:communications@uq.edu.au)

## External profiles

- [ORCID](https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5135-9433)
- [ResearcherID](https://www.webofscience.com/wos/author/record/C-4592-2016)
- [Scopus](https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=55194482400)
- [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user= )

## Personal links

- [Personal profile](https://matthewhholden.github.io/)
- [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=ZxTK7cAAAAAJ&hl=en)
- [Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science](https://cbcs.centre.uq.edu.au/)

## Social media

- [Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-holden-b2456924/)
- [X](https://twitter.com/MattHHolden)

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